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2011.08.08 When will the madness end???

8. August 2011

ES Weekly - Some ideas to look at.  One thing that I see time and time again, on all time frames with the ES, is the importance of the final wave from the previous bias.  In this case it was the final push down to the March 2009 lows, marked with the red arrow on the bottom left of the chart.

Taking the length of this move and projecting it down various times in this past 2 year rally, you see that common fibonacci percentages gave great support levels during the rally (marked by the blue arrows).

If history repeats itself, we are coming to a couple more levels that may offer some support.  The 1:1 ratio is at 1096.50 (which is only a few points away, as of this writing).  Also, the 20% drop from the 5/2/2011 highs comes in at 1098.75 (same area as the 1:1).  Will we find some support there? 

Remember, it's dangerous to try and catch a falling knife and only monkeys pick bottoms.  That being said, this is purely food for thought.

UPDATE: Pre-market we fell lower than that 1096-1099 area (to 1077).  However, during RTH, after the fed spoke, the low was right at 1097, before an 80 point, intra-day rally!

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