Tuesday - Record number of setups today. 10! So far, we've stayed sideways since Friday, with the 1278.75 area and 1288.50 area confining the action (areas mentioned in the last couple posts). Perhaps Obama's address tonight will give us the little push upwards that we need. If we retest today's lows again, I would be surprised to see them hold again.
Checklist:
- Today's Target Size: 3pt
- Gap Filled? Yes (1287.75)
- POC Hit? Yes (1286)
- Naked POC and unfilled Gap Fill hit from 1/21? Yes (1277.25)
- Tomorrow's Gap Fill: 1287.50
Based on the chart above:
- PARTIALLY WORKED: Short PP: Target of 12T, went 11T (1T from target), so I am tempted to say this trade worked. (Would've wanted to go long from S1 down here, but didn't quite get low enough. Would've worked beautifully, though.)
- WORKED: Long PP: Due to the news coming out at 9am, entry would've needed to be a little aggressive (not waiting for the second 5min bar to completely close above the PP). However, targets were hit almost immediately.
- FAILED: Long PP: We had our two closes above the PP, but market fell against us.
- FAILED: Long S1: Ouch, 2nd loss in row. Support at S1 just wasn't found, but instead made its way down to a level shown in the chart below.
- WORKED: Long S1: After hitting the low support shown in the chart below, we ride the continuation of this upward move up to the PP
- WORKED: Short PP: At this point of the day, the TPP was lower than the PP, thus making the short off the PP valid.
- PARTIALLY WORKED: Long S1: Since trade #5 made its way all the way to PP, it made going long off S1 valid again. We were looking for the 12T, but we only got 9T. Close enough to grab some partial profits. When S1 was hit once again, it would've meant three longs in a row off S1, which is against our rules, thus was passed on (which was the right thing to do!)
- WORKED: Long off Naked POC and unfilled Gap at 1277.25. These naked POCs and unfilled gaps are almost always a winner. Definitely a high percentage trade. We made our way back up near the S1, which was our exit area.
- WORKED: Long S1: Due to us making our way lower than S1 and hitting another support level down there, it makes this S1 level valid to take a long again. Also, this trade is in the direction of the PP, which the market likes to trend toward late in the day.
- PARTIALLY WORKED: Short PP: Risky, since we are within the last 30-45min of trading, but offered some profit regardless. Trade went 8T of our target of 12T. Knowing this was a risky trade going in, it would've been easy to catch 4T-6T.
As mentioned above, there was an "invisible support" around 1278.75. Below may offer a potential answer. On the chart below, if you look only at the blue arrows, it shows the range from yesterday's close (1288.50) and the PP (1285.25). We'll call this "1 unit" of movement. If we extend this unit of measurement upwards and downwards (red arrows) we find some price levels where the market seemed to rotate today. Notable areas are indicated with a small black arrow. The overnight trading has a light blue background.
You can see that the overnight high was found two units above the PP and rotated down 2 units below the PP (around 1278.75, with an additional push to fill the unfilled gap of 1/21 (not shown)). Very interesting!
neoEminiStrategy