ES Daily: As the chart below illustrates, we are still within the fork (even though we are hitting the bottom of it), we are still above the 200 MA (light blue line), and we bounced off a 50% retracement (917) measured from a recent low. The 34 MA (purple line) is crossing the 200 MA, which may prove interesting in the next couple sessions.
I would love to say the trend is changing, but it's just not proven yet. I'd like to see that 0.618 level fail, a close below the 200MA, and a close below the fork to really help the bear argument.
On the bearish front, we are bouncing off the 50% retracement below shown below.
Lesson