ES - Below shows the 2007 high. Measured from the 1st pullback off that high, we had a fall, then exactly a 61.8% pullback, then came within 1.58% of the target (-23.6% move)
After reaching our target, we made a 50% retracement. Again, using the 1st pullback off the high.
Now, we move into 2008 and we see a repeat of the 1st chart. We take a measurement form the 1st pullback, to the low, then had another exact 61.8% retracement, then came within 0.64% from the target (-23.6% move).
Assuming history repeats itself, we could see another 50%-61.8% pullback, measured from the first pullback off the highs. This could mean a return to 770-795, then a fall to 616, 535, maybe as low as 325!
Lesson